Application of Events in Predicting the FutureTaleb argues that initially, people believed that all swans were white before the discovery of Australia and the belief was backed up by scientific evidence (Taleb n.p). In this regard, the writer implies that observation and experience are significant aspects of our learning and the fragility of knowledge. As such, a single observation can overturn a conviction resulting from the confirmatory sighting. According to Taleb, a small percentage of black swans reveals almost everything from religions, historical dynamics, the success of ideas, and various elements of our personal lives. Due to the increasing effects of black swans on the industrial revolution, expectations started accelerating as the world gradually became complicated. As such, it has become insignificant to study and predict occurrences over the years contrary to the previous periods where it was very easy to predict the subsequent events.
The application of science has rendered predictability and social science inconsequential which had been over centuries operating under false beliefs. Taleb argues that the problems have had tremendous impacts due to the application of the science of uncertainty to the real world (Taleb n.p). Many people fail to see the bigger picture which makes it difficult to predict the future since life is a cumulative effect of various factors. A comparison of various life events in …
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